1: The $500 PC
2: The Set-Top Box
3: The Network Computer
4: The Internet Terminal
5: The Java Machine
What a load of crap! This is the mass market that isn't. I'm a firm believer that,
in order to support the "magic $500 price point", real people (not businesses)
need to want this machine. They don't. I was reminded of this when I saw a clipping
today about a $700 Internet-capable Philips CD-I player. Who'd be stupid
enough to put that monstrosity on their Wal-Mart charge account?
The Web has become a way for companies like Philips to try and sell off junk
that didn't move the first time. Add a custom CD and a 14.4 modem (I wouldn't
bat an eye if one of those fell out of my bowl of Frosted Flakes in the morning),
and the white elephant CD player of the '80s becomes the Web browser of the '90s.
We're smarter than that.
Partly I blame Java. Though a cool technology (if you can call a defenestrated
version of C++ cool), it's given a lot of false hope to people who want to build
truly mass-market gear. This is possibly a legacy of Java's original purpose
(back when it was called Oak), a language for controlling the old I-TV gear and
appliances. These companies that are getting all worked up are deluding
themselves, no matter how many Larry Ellison poses in the Lotus Position with
a little box that looks like a Sinclair Z-80.
The problem is twofold. Since the PC has more or less taken over the
middle-class market, the remaining market is the lower and lower-middle classes.
This is not a group that has money to burn. To appeal to them, that price point
needs to be closer to $200 than $500 - heck, they should be given away!
If you're looking for a computer, do you buy the $500 computer that's nothing
without a (working) Net connection, or do you spend $999 for a P-75 that
includes a CD-ROM, 8-16 megs of RAM, a hard drive, Windows, and a
monitor? I know the answer.
Besides, to sell these on the mass market, there has to be an incentive for
the mass merchandiser. What do you think the pimply-faced commissioned
sales weasel at Nobody Beats The Wiz would rather sell you:
A: A $500 computer with a $25 profit margin (or damn close)
B: A $999 Real Computer with $75-$100 in profit PLUS the opportunity to
sell you really high-margin accessories.
Does Sears really want you to download all your applications from the Web,
therefore eliminating all the future add-on revenue you represent to their bloated
retail store? I don't think so. The whole economic model of the PC industry depends
on you coming back. to buy more and more software, upgrades, and accessories.
They can't afford to lose Timmy and Terri Trailerpark to
a Network Computer that they couldn't even make any money on.
So, in the end, we are really safe from the Network Computer. The only thing
they may eventually replace is the old 3270 terminals that are still out there, if that.
Then again, why bother replacing them if they still work?
-Josh Turiel